Line of Scrimmage: The T.O. Factor

Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Given their recent history of off-the-field problems, it's tempting to quip that the Cincinnati Bengals' signing of Terrell Owens is an attempt to improve the team's character.

It's natural to laugh at an organization where the imbalanced patients have run the asylum for so long, and where the man who made the Owens signing, longtime team president Mike Brown, has often seemed to be constructed with a couple fewer screws that his contemporaries around the league.

The marriage between Cincinnati and the radioactive Owens, hot on the heels of the offseason signings of Matt Jones and Pacman Jones, is more grist for the mill of those who would argue that the Bengals don't get it, and don't understand that character and chemistry are important components in the effort to win championships.

I say hogwash. Every successful NFL franchise takes chances, and if the Bengals wish to post back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since 1981-82, they know they had better do the same.

There were 12 playoff teams in 2009, and the Bengals were the 12th-best among them by the time the postseason actually hit. They peaked in Weeks 9-10, completing sweeps of the Ravens and Steelers and holding on for dear life thereafter. Cincinnati went 3-5 in its final eight games - the wins coming over the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs - and was outclassed by the Jets in the first round of the postseason.

Playing the same hand was not going to result in a royal flush, and Brown and head coach Marvin Lewis knew it. So, an offense that was 26th in passing in '09 sought to re-invent itself as an aerial team, with nearly every offseason move made on that side of the ball indicating that Carson Palmer will be winging it quite a bit this season.

Cincinnati signed Antonio Bryant and Matt Jones off the free agent wire, used a first-round draft pick on Jermaine Gresham (Oklahoma), the top tight end in the draft, and followed up two rounds later by selecting Texas star Jordan Shipley (3rd Round, Texas). Though the offensive line remains something of a question mark after struggling to protect the plodding Palmer at times in 2009, there is hope that last year's lottery pick, tackle Andre Smith, will get in shape and be a major difference-maker up front.

In a division where the Steelers are never down long, the Ravens made similar aggressive moves (Anquan Boldin, Donte' Stallworth) with an eye on contending for a Super Bowl, and the Browns appear ready to get off the mat, Cincinnati has done exactly what was prudent for its survival.

The move to sign Owens, however controversial, was of a piece with the design of the larger blueprint. From a football standpoint, the Bengals are insulating themselves from the distinct possibility that Bryant, who has really only had one great season since entering the league in 2002, won't be sufficiently recovered from offseason knee surgery. They can hardly count on the troubled Matt Jones, who isn't even a cinch to make the team, and younger players like Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and Shipley aren't going to scare opposing defensive coordinators the way Owens will.

Though the popular sentiment is that the 36-year-old Owens is in decline, it's important to note that he's only two years removed from a 1,000-yard, 10- touchdown season with the Cowboys. Last year in Buffalo, where the Bills had major quarterback problems and an offensive line that couldn't even enable the receivers to get out of their breaks, Owens still had 829 yards and scored six touchdowns. The guy keeps his body fine-tuned and will work hard, that much is a given.

Of course, we all know that work habits and the attention the six-time Pro Bowler commands on the field have never been the prevailing issues. What everyone wants to know is how such a hyper-sensitive narcissist is going to co- exist with his long-lost emotional twin, Chad Ochocinco, how Owens is going to react toward Palmer or offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski when he doesn't get enough touches in a given game, and how he'll handle a losing streak should one arise.

Given that Owens is a future Hall of Famer who is nonetheless playing for his fifth team in the past eight years, you can pretty much set your watch for the headline-grabbing sound byte or sideline tantrum to come. With the one-year deal they gave him, the Bengals are gambling that he'll keep the antics to a level that will enable him to return in 2011.

In light of his history, we know that the odds of things working out between Owens and the Bengals long-term are prohibitive. But in light of the checkered history of the Cincinnati Bengals, sitting on the platform and watching the train roll by isn't any more attractive an option.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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