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08/14/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a light week for racing unless you are trying to make the "Chase for the Nextel Cup." Then it's a huge weekend, one of just four remaining, before we determine who will race for the 2007 championship and who will watch from the sidelines.
NASCAR
Nextel Cup
3M Performance 400 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
Just four races remain until the cutoff for the "Chase for the Nextel Cup." Following an eventful Sunday in upstate New York, the picture is becoming clearer as to who is a contender and who is just a pretender.
One thing is for sure, Kurt Busch is a contender. The No.2 Miller Lite Penske Racing Dodge driver has been on fire since the Pepsi 400 in early July. In his last five starts, Busch has one win (Pocono), three top-10s and finished no lower than 11th.
At the time he began to "heat up" he was 15th in the standings and staring at a second consecutive season without a chance at the title. Then something happened, the team jelled and now they find themselves solidly in the top-12. Busch has a 96-point lead on teammate Ryan Newman and 100 points ahead of stumbling Dale Earnhardt Jr.
In fact, at Pocono they were easily the best car on the track. Busch led 175 of 200 laps en route to a 4.131-second win and one of the most dominant performances of the season.
"It's all about momentum 'the big mo' -- and Busch and our entire Miller Lite Dodge team certainly have it going for us," said crew chief Pat Tryson on the team's website. "If you're fortunate enough to have 'the big mo' on your side, it's best to ride it for all it's worth and that's exactly what we're hoping to do."
The something that "happened" for the No.2 Dodge team was Tryson himself. Tryson took over the reins about two weeks before the sudden upswing in the team's performance. It took a little time to make changes, but now everyone can see the results.
Tryson teamed with Mark Martin at Roush Fenway Racing for the first three years of "The Chase" and they qualified in all three years. Last year he was switched over to Greg Biffle's team, but that didn't quite work out as planned.
"Competing for championships is our goal and Pat's proven that he has the ability to get top level teams and drivers into the Chase," said Tim Cindric, President of Penske Performance.
Newman, Busch's teammate at Penske, has been just outside the "Chase" all season and unfortunately appears on a course to stay there. Just two top-10s in the last five races and a accident that left him 42nd at Indianapolis has left him with only a slim chance at making NASCAR's "playoffs." Mark down Newman as a pretender.
For the millions of Dale Earnhardt Jr. fans this will be hard to read, but "Junior" is a pretender as well. He is 100 points out of the playoffs and has finished 34th or worse in three of the last five events. Not exactly the way to make a move up the charts. At Watkins Glen, Earnhardt Jr. finished 42nd after an engine failure, his team's second in the last three events. And with "Junior" already having one foot out the door, don't expect anything spectacular from this team over the next month.
Greg Biffle is 15th in the standings, but 212 points out of the "Chase." It's a tall order for Biffle to jump over three drivers and that many points. The team has been solid of late, but not extraordinary, which is what will be needed over the next month if the No.16 Roush Fenway Ford team is to make the leap into the "Chase."
The good news for Biffle is that he has had a lot of success at Michigan International Speedway. In nine starts, he has two wins and six top-10s and led 170 laps. His average finish at MIS of 12.778 is better than either Newman, Earnhardt Jr. or Kurt Busch.
For both the contenders and pretenders it's time to put up or shut up.
Busch
Carfax 250 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
Kevin Harvick is back to his 2006 Busch Series championship form these days, winning the last two Busch events (Montreal, Watkins Glen) and four of his last five starts.
In just 17 starts this year, Harvick has collected a series-high five wins and 15 top-10s. He is third in points despite missing seven races (29% of the season), in itself an amazing statistic.
While Harvick's win in Montreal was a matter of being in the right place at the right time to take advantage of other driver mistakes, at Watkins Glen he was dominant from start to finish leading a total of 49 of 82 laps.
Harvick has always been pretty good when it comes to turning right as well as left. In 14 Nextel Cup and Busch road course starts, he has won twice and earned nine top-10s in 14 races. It would have been 10 of 14 if Juan Pablo Montoya hadn't got into the back of him on Sunday, but that's a whole different can o' worms.
"We have been able to run in the top-10 and top-five at Watkins Glen and Sonoma," said Harvick on his team's website. "I am fine that my name doesn't get brought up when it comes to road-course experts. It kind of gives me a chance to fly under the radar a little."
This week Harvick and 19 other "Buschwhackers" will race in the "Saturday warmup."
Among them is Mark Martin, the all-time Busch Series leader at MIS with two wins, seven top-fives, eight top-10s, 304 laps led and an average finish of 4.2. He is the only driver two sweep a Michigan weekend, accomplishing the feat in August 1993.
Since it has been six paragraphs and there has yet been no reference to points leader Carl Edwards, who leads the series by 766 points, despite finishes of 30th and 32nd in the last two events. It shows just how great a start the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing driver had, posting nine consecutive top-six results, to start the season.
Edwards could take a month's vacation and still return in first place. Of course, a vacation for Edwards would be something like going dirt track racing back home, so he might as well continue to race each week and let as many fans as possible enjoy his "work."
<< Rizzuto dead at 89
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yankees Hall of Famer and legendary
broadcaster Phil Rizzuto died on Tuesday morning. He was 89.
The former Yankee shortstop and 1950 MVP made an equally big name on the
airwaves, calling s
<< White Sox back on the road after ugly homestand
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox wrapped up their recent six-game
homestand leaving plenty to be desired, much like how their entire 2007
season can be described to this point.
The team began the month with a glimmer of hope, carryin
<< Cardinals in must win situation
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals have done everything they can to
stay within striking distance in the race for the National League Central.
However, the Cardinals' poor start has made it difficult for the team to make
any real headwa
<< Jacobs Field no longer a safe haven for the Tribe
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once upon a time, the Cleveland Indians could turn to
Jacobs Field to ease their troubles.
The Indians spent much of the season with the top home record in the majors,
but lately they've been getting hammered pretty good i
Mexico, U.S. friendly canceled >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Men's National Team will play
Brazil on Sept. 9 instead of Mexico.
The United States was scheduled to play at Mexico but the game was canceled
because of financial problems. Instead of vis
Brazil to play friendly against the U.S. >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Men's National Team will play
Brazil on Sept. 9 instead of Mexico.
The United States was scheduled to play at Mexico but the game was canceled
because of financial problems. Instead of vis
U.S. replaces Mexico with Brazil >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Men's National Team will play
Brazil on Sept. 9 instead of Mexico.
The United States was scheduled to play at Mexico but the game was canceled
because of financial problems. Instead of vis
Still some big names left on free agent market >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NHL free agent season started with
such a flurry of activity that it's easy to forget that there is still some
quality talent left on the market.
It's been 1 1/2 months since the league's free agency p
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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